The 2016 season was a frustrating one for the promising twenty-six year old San Francisco giant second baseman Joe Panik. After posting 4.1 fWAR in only 100 games in 2015, Panik posted 2.1 fWAR in 127 games in 2016. A solid season, especially in limited playing time, but there was definitely more to be desired for Panik. This would most likely be a career year for someone like his fellow infield mate Kelby Tomlinson, but Panik is capable of much more than this. Taking a few looks at Panik's number line and stat cast profile shows that he is an excellent candidate for a bounce back 2017 season.
At first glance, I don't think Joe Panik's 2015 season was as appreciated as it should have been. He didn't even qualify for the batting title (432 PAs) and yet finished 38th among position players in fWAR. He was the 27th best hitter according to wRC+ among those with over 300 PAs. Keep in mind that 2015 was Panik's first full season in the major leagues and he is one of the best, if not THE best, fielding second baseman in the league. It seems like Panik has been around forever after his postseason heroics on the 2014 Giants squad but it is easy to forget he got his first start of his career in late June of 2014. A 6 fWAR pace in his first full season in the big leagues in nothing to scoff at.
Unfortunately, injuries are what has held him back early in his career. Lower-back inflammation limited his playing time in 2015 and a nasty concussion and groin issues plagued him throughout the 2016 season. Some wonder whether those back issues carried over into the 2016 season. Even if they didn't, suffering a concussion is enough to warrant that Panik was no where close to 100% in 2016.
Even without taking account for the injuries, there are reasons to believe 2017 is going to be different. Panik's elite plate discipline is what is going to keep him at least mildly successful for years to come. He was one of three players to have a BB/K ratio over 1, sandwiched between plate discipline aficionado's Ben Zobrist and Carlos Santana. Yes, he was ahead of even the likes of his teammate Buster Posey and Joey Votto. He doesn't walk much, but he keeps the strikeouts down. Both rates were right around 9%. That leaves for an incredible amount of balls in play
Panik has ran decently high BABIP throughout his professional career. His minor league career it his BABIP stayed mostly around .320-.330. His 73 Major League games in 2014 it was .343. And in 2015 it was .330. All numbers that would indicate he is line-drive type hitter who run a better than average BABIP. But something changed in 2016. His BABIP feel to .245, second worst among qualified hitters. Low BABIPs are reserved for power hitters such as Jose Bautista and Todd Frazier who don't rely on balls in play but rather balls over the fence, not for contact hitters such as Joe Panik. A BABIP that low is concerning but there are of course explanations.
Joe Panik would not have made it this far if he were always running a BABIP as low as he did in 2016. Panik was one of the most unlucky hitters in 2016. There is no way Panik can be expected to run a BABIP as low as he did in 2016, and I would even venture to guess that it creep up back over .300. His stat cast numbers suggest he was hitting the ball about as hard in 2015. The real difference is the angle at which he was hitting the ball. Panik traded line drives for many more ground balls in 2016. Bad luck and a change in launch angle combined attribute to the down 2016 season from Joe Panik.
My guess is that a weird injury plagued season is what lead to his disappointing 2016 campaign. There is too much evidence in Panik's history that suggests 2016 is not the real Joe Panik, and we can expect a return to the elite contact hitter he is capable of being in 2017.
Monday, December 5, 2016
Sunday, December 4, 2016
The Cardinals' Potential Diamond in the Huff
Last month, the St. Louis Cardinals made one of their signature under the radar moves that has characterized their organization in the 21st century. They signed thirty-one year old outfielder/first baseman Chad Huffman to a minor league contract. Huffman played for the Detroit Tigers triple-a affiliate in Toledo in 2016. He was the best hitter in the international league and it wasn't particularly close. He was tops in the league in OPS, wRC+, and lead the league in wRAA by almost ten runs. However you look at it he dominated. It's hard to figure out why Huffman didn't get any kind of shot at the big leagues in 2016.
A former 2nd round pick by the San Diego Padres way back in 2006, Huffman was actually quite successful in his first go round through the minor league system. He was the Padres sixth ranked prospect after the 2006 season and remained in their top twenty-five throughout his tenure there. his solid plate discipline skills and non-sexy, but decent power numbers most likely held him back from being ranked in the top twenty where he belonged. Huffman looked like he was on his way to getting a real shot in the big leagues.
His career took a turn in April of 2010 when the New YorkYankees claimed him off waivers. His numbers in triple-a took a step backwards and when he finally did get his shot in the Major Leagues he failed to take advantage of it. 2010 with the Yankees was his one and only time in the Majors. He spent time in triple-a with the Indians in 2011-12 and with the Cardinals in 2013, posting numbers very similar to his early minor league days. Once again, it seems as though Huffman was deserving of some kind of shot in these years. He posted an OBP over .350 in each season and never had a wRC+ 112. Somehow, a real shot continued to evade him.
Rather than rotting away in triple-a, Huffman took off for the Caracas, and then Japan a year later. He actually posted worse numbers overseas, but something must have changed outside of the States because he came back an even better hitter than before. 2016 was a career year for Huffman, if one is allowed to call a year in AAA a career year. If he were not blocked by the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton, he would've been on the Detroit Tigers roster at some point. It is hard to imagine any other team Huffman WOULDN'T have seen the light of day on. Up to this point, it seems as though the thirty-one year old has been incredibly unlucky. 2017 might be the year he gets his chance to shine on his second stint in the St. Louis Cardinals organization.
As of right now, Mr. Huffman is on the Cardinals 40-man roster. With the subtractions over the last two offseasona of Matt Holliday and Jason Heyward, the Cardinals are in need of a new fourth outfielder and maybe even a starter depending on their confidence in Tommy Pham. Matt Carpenter is penciled in as the starting first baseman but there is no doubt he won't be spending all his time there being the third baseman by trade that he is. In that case, Mat Adams would become the starting first baseman, leaving them in need of a backup. Barring more offseason additions to the roster, it seems as though Huffman has a clear shot at a roster spot. Once you start taking into account how injury prone the likes of Carpenter, Adams, and Pham are, and taking into account any other injuries that may play out, Huffman must be feeling pretty good about the situation he finds himself in.
What other organization would a no-name minor leaguer rather find himself in? the Cardinals have built one of the most successful professional sports organizations of the 21st century on guys like Huffman. Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, Jeremy Hazelbaker, the Cardinals churn these types of players out like no other. Chad Huffman is the next name in the long line of St. Louis Cardinals who came out of nowhere.
A former 2nd round pick by the San Diego Padres way back in 2006, Huffman was actually quite successful in his first go round through the minor league system. He was the Padres sixth ranked prospect after the 2006 season and remained in their top twenty-five throughout his tenure there. his solid plate discipline skills and non-sexy, but decent power numbers most likely held him back from being ranked in the top twenty where he belonged. Huffman looked like he was on his way to getting a real shot in the big leagues.
His career took a turn in April of 2010 when the New YorkYankees claimed him off waivers. His numbers in triple-a took a step backwards and when he finally did get his shot in the Major Leagues he failed to take advantage of it. 2010 with the Yankees was his one and only time in the Majors. He spent time in triple-a with the Indians in 2011-12 and with the Cardinals in 2013, posting numbers very similar to his early minor league days. Once again, it seems as though Huffman was deserving of some kind of shot in these years. He posted an OBP over .350 in each season and never had a wRC+ 112. Somehow, a real shot continued to evade him.
Rather than rotting away in triple-a, Huffman took off for the Caracas, and then Japan a year later. He actually posted worse numbers overseas, but something must have changed outside of the States because he came back an even better hitter than before. 2016 was a career year for Huffman, if one is allowed to call a year in AAA a career year. If he were not blocked by the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton, he would've been on the Detroit Tigers roster at some point. It is hard to imagine any other team Huffman WOULDN'T have seen the light of day on. Up to this point, it seems as though the thirty-one year old has been incredibly unlucky. 2017 might be the year he gets his chance to shine on his second stint in the St. Louis Cardinals organization.
As of right now, Mr. Huffman is on the Cardinals 40-man roster. With the subtractions over the last two offseasona of Matt Holliday and Jason Heyward, the Cardinals are in need of a new fourth outfielder and maybe even a starter depending on their confidence in Tommy Pham. Matt Carpenter is penciled in as the starting first baseman but there is no doubt he won't be spending all his time there being the third baseman by trade that he is. In that case, Mat Adams would become the starting first baseman, leaving them in need of a backup. Barring more offseason additions to the roster, it seems as though Huffman has a clear shot at a roster spot. Once you start taking into account how injury prone the likes of Carpenter, Adams, and Pham are, and taking into account any other injuries that may play out, Huffman must be feeling pretty good about the situation he finds himself in.
What other organization would a no-name minor leaguer rather find himself in? the Cardinals have built one of the most successful professional sports organizations of the 21st century on guys like Huffman. Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, Jeremy Hazelbaker, the Cardinals churn these types of players out like no other. Chad Huffman is the next name in the long line of St. Louis Cardinals who came out of nowhere.
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